Two years since Russia’s full-scale invasion, Ukraine has recaptured 54 percent of occupied territory, while Russia still occupies 18 percent of the country. Ukraine’s counteroffensive efforts have stalled, and Russia has opened a new front in Ukraine's northeast Kharkiv region. Meanwhile, Russia continues to bombard Ukrainian cities and blockade its ports, and Ukraine has stepped up drone attacks on Russian ships and infrastructure. Since January 2022, Ukraine has received about $278 billionin aid, including $75 billionfrom the United States, though it warns of donor fatigue. Fighting and air strikes have inflicted over 30,000 civilian casualties, while 3.7 million people are internally displaced, and 6.5 million have fled Ukraine. 14.6 million people need humanitarian assistance.
Background
Armed conflict in eastern Ukraine erupted in early 2014 following Russia’s annexation of Crimea. The previous year, protests in Ukraine’s capital, Kyiv, against Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych’s decision to reject a deal for greater economic integration with the European Union (EU) were met with a violent crackdown by state security forces. The protests widened, escalating the conflict, and President Yanukovychfledthe country in February 2014.
One month later, in March 2014, Russian troops took control of the Ukrainian region of Crimea. Russian President Vladimir Putincitedthe need to protect the rights of Russian citizens and Russian speakers in Crimea and southeast Ukraine. Russia then formally annexed the peninsula after Crimeans voted to join the Russian Federation in a disputed localreferendum. The crisis heightened ethnic divisions, and two months later, pro-Russian separatists in the eastern Ukrainian regions of Donetsk and Luhansk held their own independencereferendums.
Armed conflict in the regions quickly broke out between Russian-backed forces and the Ukrainian military. Russia denied military involvement, but both Ukraine and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO)reportedthe buildup of Russian troops and military equipment near Donetsk and Russian cross-border shelling immediately following Crimea’s annexation. The conflict transitioned to an active stalemate, with regularshellingand skirmishes occurring along frontlines separating Russian- and Ukrainian-controlled eastern border regions.
Beginning in February 2015, France, Germany, Russia, and Ukraine attempted to kickstart negotiations to bring an end to the violence through theMinsk Accords. The agreement framework included provisions for a ceasefire, withdrawal of heavy weaponry, and full Ukrainian government control throughout the conflict zone. Efforts to reach a diplomatic settlement and satisfactory resolution, however, were largely unsuccessful.
In April 2016, NATO announced the deployment of four battalions to Eastern Europe, rotating troops through Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, and Poland to deter possible future Russian aggression elsewhere on the continent, particularly in the Baltics. In September 2017, the United States alsodeployedtwo U.S. Army tank brigades to Poland to further bolster NATO’s presence in the region.
In January 2018, the United States imposed newsanctionson twenty-one individuals—including a number of Russian officials—and nine companies linked to the conflict in eastern Ukraine. In March 2018, the U.S. Department of Stateapprovedthe sale of anti-tank weapons to Ukraine, the first sale of lethal weaponry since the conflict began. In October 2018, Ukraine joined the United States and seven other NATO countries in a series of large-scale airexercisesin western Ukraine. The exercises came after Russia held its own annual militaryexercisesin September 2018, the largest since the fall of the Soviet Union.
InOctober 2021, months of intelligence gathering and observations of Russian troop movements, force build-up, and military contingency financing culminated in a White House briefing with U.S. intelligence, military, and diplomatic leaders on a near-certain mass-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine. In the days and weeks leading up to the invasion, the Joe Biden administration made the unconventional decision toreduce information-sharing constraintsand allow for the broader dissemination of intelligence and findings, both with allies—including Ukraine—and publicly. The goal of this strategy was to bolster allied defenses and dissuade Russia from taking aggressive action. Commercial satelliteimagery, social media posts, and publishedintelligencefromNovemberandDecember2021 showed armor,missiles, and other heavy weaponry moving toward Ukraine with no official explanation from the Kremlin. In mid-December 2021, Russia’s foreign ministry called on the United States and NATO to cease military activity in Eastern Europe and Central Asia, commit to no further NATO expansion toward Russia, and prevent Ukraine from joining NATO in the future. The United States and other NATO allies rejected these demands and threatened to impose severe economicsanctionsif Russia took aggressive action against Ukraine.
In early February 2022, satellite imageryshowedthe largest deployment of Russian troops to its border with Belarus since the end of the Cold War. Negotiations between theUnited States, Russia, and European powers—includingFranceandGermany—failed to bring about a resolution. In late February 2022, the United States warned that Russia intended to invade Ukraine, citing Russia’sgrowingmilitary presence at the Russia-Ukraine border. President Putin thenorderedtroops to Luhansk and Donetsk,claimingthe troops served a “peacekeeping” function. The United States responded by imposing sanctions on theregionsand theNord Stream 2 gas pipelinea few days later. Nevertheless, just prior to the invasion, U.S. and Ukrainian leaders remainedat oddsregarding the nature and likelihood of an armed Russian threat, with Ukrainian officials playing down the possibility of an incursion and delaying the mobilization of their troops and reserve forces.
On February 24, 2022, during a last-ditch UN Security Councileffortto dissuade Russia from attacking Ukraine, Putinannouncedthe beginning of a full-scale land, sea, and air invasion of Ukraine, targeting Ukrainian military assets and cities across the country. Putin claimed that the goal of the operation was to demilitarize and denazify Ukraine and end the alleged genocide of Russians in Ukrainian territory. U.S. President Joe Bidendeclaredthe attack “unprovoked and unjustified” and issued severe sanctions against top Kremlinofficials, including Putin and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov; four of Russia’s largestbanks; and the Russian oil and gas industry in coordination with European allies. On March 2, 141 of 193 UN member states voted to condemn Russia’s invasion in anemergencyUN General Assembly session, demanding that Russia immediately withdraw from Ukraine.
As the initial Russian invasion slowed in March,long-range missile strikescaused significant damage to Ukrainian military assets, urban residential areas, and communication and transportation infrastructure.Hospitalsandresidentialcomplexes also sustained shelling and bombing attacks. Later that month, Russia announced that it would “reduce military activity” near Kyiv and Chernihiv. By April 6, Russia had withdrawnall troopsfrom Ukraine’s capital region. In the aftermath of the Russian withdrawal from Kyiv’s surrounding areas, Ukrainian civilians described apparent war crimes committed by Russian forces, including accounts ofsummary executions,torture, andrape.
On April 18, Russia launched a newmajor offensivein eastern Ukraine following itsfailed attemptto seize the capital. By May, Russian forces took control ofMariupol, a major and highly strategic southeastern port city that had been under siege since late February.Indiscriminate and targeted attacks against civilians in the city, including an air strike on atheaterand the bombing of amaternity hospital, amplified allegations against Russian forces for international humanitarian lawviolations. Since the summer of 2022, fighting has largely been confined to Ukraine’seast and south, with Russian cruise missiles, bombs,cluster munitions, andthermobaric weaponsdevastating port cities along the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov.
The Russian seizure of several Ukrainian ports and subsequentblockadeof Ukrainian food exports compounded an already acute global food crisis further exacerbated by climate change, inflation, and supply chain havoc. Prior to the conflict, Ukraine had been thelargest supplierof commodities to theWorld Food Program(WFP), which provides food assistance to vulnerable populations. In July, Russia and Ukraine signed anagreementto free more than twenty million tons of grain from Russian-controlled Ukrainian ports. The first grain shipments to leave Ukraine since the Russian invasiondepartedfrom Odesa on August 1, 2022; theyarrivedin Russian-allied Syria on August 15, although their originally presumed destination had been Lebanon. On October 29, Russiasuspendedthe grain deal in response to an alleged Ukrainian attack on Russian naval forces, which Ukrainecalleda “false pretext.” Nonetheless, Russia did not enforce the blockade when Ukraine defiantlycontinuedshipments. Turkey quicklynegotiatedRussia’s return to the deal, which was consistentlyextendeduntil July 17, 2023, when Russia quit the deal.
In mid-August, the southern shift of the war’s frontline sparked international fears of anuclear disasterat theZaporizhzhianuclear plant along the Dnipro River. The largest nuclear plant in Europe, the Zaporizhzhia facility was seized by Russian forces in the earliest stages of the war.Fighting in the territory surrounding the facility has raised concerns that the plant could be critically damaged in the crossfire: shelling of the plant’s switchyard has already led to a city-wideblack-outin Enerhodar, where the plant is located. Representatives of theInternational Atomic Energy Agency(IAEA), including Director General Rafael Mariano Grossi, visited the plant in early September to assess the threat of a nuclear accident. In areport[PDF] on the findings of its inspection, the IAEA called for “a nuclear safety and security protection zone” around the plant and for “all military activity” in the adjacent territory to cease immediately.
In September 2022, Ukrainian forces made strong advances in thenortheastand mounted a revitalizedsoutherncounteroffensive. Ukraine retook significant territory in theKharkiv region, surprising Russian forces andcuttingoff important supply lines at Lyman before stalling and settling into a new front line. Shortly after, in southern Ukraine, Russia hastily withdrew across the Dnipro River as Ukrainian forcesretookthe city of Kherson and all territory west of the river.
Russia thenredeployedforces eastward to Donetsk, in addition tosendingtens of thousands of reinforcements to the area in advance of a February 2023 offensive. Russia also announced apartial mobilizationon September 21, 2022, to refurbish the Russian army, promptingthousands of Russiansto flee amid antiwar protests, and moved toannexfour occupied territories: Luhansk, Donetsk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia. In hisspeechannouncing the illegal annexation of Ukrainian territory, Putin also hinted at the possibility of nuclear escalation, claiming that the United States had set a precedent by dropping nuclear bombs on Hiroshima and Nagasaki during World War II.
Recent Developments
Following a winter stalemate, Putinannouncedplans in February to take all of Donbas by March 2023 in an offensive surge. However, the attack made little progress anddevolvedinto a months-long siege ofBakhmut, a town of limited strategic value with a pre-war population of seventy thousand. The United StatesestimatesRussia suffered one hundred thousand casualties in Bakhmut, including twenty thousand deaths. Ukraine also took heavycasualtiesin the urban warfare. By late May, Russiaclaimedto have taken the city.
On June 6, 2023, abreachin the Nova Kakhovka dam, sixty kilometers north of Kherson on the Dnipro River, caused severefloodingin southwest Ukraine,affectingover eighty thousand people who live in the riparian zone. UkraineaccusedRussia of blowing up the dam to prevent a southeastern offensive. The Ukrainian dam operator said it wasdestroyedbeyond repair. Furthermore, the draining of the reservoir raisedconcernsover the availability of water to cool the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant reactors, though the cooling ponds arereportedly stable.
In June 2023, Ukrainelauncheda much-anticipated counteroffensive, attempting to break through Russian defenses eastward in Donetsk province, including aroundBakhmut, and southward in Zaporizhzhia province, which forms the “land corridor” to Crimea. Ukrainian forces metstiff resistanceand sufferedheavy lossesagainst hardened Russian defensive positions, air superiority, and minefields. Nonetheless, Ukraine made small gains on the ground and has stepped up attacks onbridges to Crimea,Russian ships, andbuildings in Moscow.
Since February 24, 2022, the United States hascommittednearly forty billion dollars in assistance to Ukraine,includingnineteen billion in immediate military aid and sixteen billion in humanitarian aid. Additionally, in early 2023 the Biden administration approved the provision of increasingly advanced weaponry, such as thePatriotair defense system, crucial for defending against Russian airstrikes, and top-tier battletanks. The United States has also dramatically increased U.S. troop presence in Europe, bringing the total to more thanone hundred thousand.While the United Nations, Group of Seven member states, EU, and otherscontinueto condemn Russia’s actions and support Ukrainian forces, Russia has turned to countries likeNorth KoreaandIranfor intelligence and military equipment and continues toselldiscounted oil and gas to India and China, among others.
On June 23, Putin faced a major internal challenge when Yevgeniy Prigozhin released a video claiming the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD)shelledWagner forces andannounceda “march of justice” to unseat the military leadership. The mutiny followed months of tensions with the MoD, which Prigozhin ofteninsultedand accused of not supplying adequate munitions, and an attempt by the MoD toreign inWagner fighters. Wagner forcesquicklyoccupiedRostov-on-Don and seized Russia’s southern military headquarters. Wagner convoys thenadvancedmore than halfway to Moscow; Putin declared the march “treason” and offered amnesty for soldiers who stopped. On June 24, Belarussian President Alexander Lukashenkonegotiatedfor Wagner soldiers to return to their bases and for Prigozhin to move to Belarus.Two months after the revolt, Prigozhin died in a private plane crash outside of Moscow. Although a definitive conclusion for the cause of the crash has not been reached, U.S. officials believean explosion ordered by Putin likely brought it down.
In November 2023, Commander-in-Chief Valerii Zaluzhnyi said the war had reached a stalemate after Ukraine’s failed counteroffensive. This assessment resulted in months of tensions between Zaluzhnyi and Zelenskyy over strategy and tactics. On February 8, Zelenskyy replaced Zaluzhnyi with General Oleksandr Syrsky, who led two successful counteroffensives since the beginning of the invasion. Soon after his appointment, Syrsky ordered the withdrawal of troops from Avdiivka, a strategically important town in Donetsk, where fighting was ongoing for four months. He argued the retreat was necessary to avoid being encircled. The decision, however, handed Russia its most significant battlefield victory since the capture of Bakhmut in May 2023.
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