49ers are still short-handed as they try to sweep the Rams (2024)

When the Rams came to Levi’s Stadium in Week 6, the 49ers were staggering. They’d lost two straight, the second defeat being a 43-17 shellacking at the hands of Miami. Injury issues raged across the roster, including at quarterback, where Jimmy Garoppolo’s ankle health was the biggest question.

The 49ers responded by scheming their struggling offensive line into the driver’s seat. Coach Kyle Shanahan devised a creative, run-heavy approach behind running back Raheem Mostert and receiver Deebo Samuel, Garoppolo beat the Rams’ blitzes and it all turned into a 24-16 win.

In many ways, the 49ers leveraged creativity to turn back the clock to the greener pastures of 2019.

“I think Kyle and Mike (McDaniel) and Mike (LaFleur) do such a great job of game planning from week to week and being able to attack the defense, and so innovation has always been something that they’ve done a great job of,” Rams coach Sean McVay said during a conference call on Wednesday. “And I thought that was very similar to what they’ve done: ‘How many different ways can we creatively get the ball in certain guys’ hands and alleviate some of the stress on some of the harder downs based on some of our personnel?'”

The division-leading Rams (7-3) expect more kitchen-sink creativity during the 49ers’ first visit to the new SoFi Stadium this Sunday. The problem for the 49ers (4-6): Even though Samuel is slated to return and may be joined by Mostert and others, key players such as Garoppolo and tight end George Kittle will miss this rematch — and the team still faces a slew of COVID-19/reserve list issues.

The 49ers simply haven’t been able to climb back to anywhere near full strength this season, and that’s why the Rams are favored by a touchdown against a crew that’ll be led by backup quarterback Nick Mullens.

Still, the 49ers believe they’ll give themselves a chance to begin salvaging a crippled season.

“These division games are always tight,” Shanahan said on a Zoom media call Wednesday. “They’re always tough. Both opponents know each other very, very well. And I just feel like it’s always a grind. The second time we played them (in 2019) was a shootout. First time wasn’t. So, it can go either way, but you always feel like these games are just somehow, someway going to come down to the last couple of drives of the game.”

Here are 10 observations followed by our predictions.

1. Injury report: Some reinforcements are coming, although uncertainty will likely persist all the way until Sunday.

On Friday, Shanahan said that Samuel (hamstring) is off the injury report and will play against the Rams. Shanahan added that Mostert (high ankle sprain), cornerback Richard Sherman (calf strain) and running back Jeff Wilson (high ankle sprain) will all come off injured reserve Saturday and officially be classified as questionable for the game.

Running back Tevin Coleman (knee), right guard Tom Compton (concussion), linebacker Demetrius Flannigan-Fowles (hamstring) and nickelback K’Waun Williams (high ankle sprain) have all been ruled out. Compton suffered his concussion during a walk-through this week, so rookie Colton McKivitz will make his first career start.

Linebackers Azeez Al-Shaair and Dre Greenlaw and tight end Jordan Reed are all questionable after missing two straight days with a non-COVID-19 illness. That left the 49ers particularly shorthanded in practice on Thursday and Friday, forcing the team to work at walk-through pace for the majority of the week.

Beyond all that, the 49ers activated defensive tackle Javon Kinlaw from the COVID-19/reserve list on Friday, but six players still remain on the list following a bye-week flurry and their availability for Sunday’s game remains in question. Here’s an outline of the 49ers’ virus list situation over the bye, with players still on the list listed in bold.

Placements on virus list

• Nov. 16: Arik Armstead
• Nov. 18: Kinlaw
• Nov. 19: Hroniss Grasu and Joe Walker
• Nov. 20: Trent Williams, Brandon Aiyuk and Daniel Helm
• Nov. 23: D.J. Jones and Jordan Willis

Activations from virus list

• Nov. 25: Armstead (9 days) and Grasu (6 days)
• Nov. 27: Kinlaw (9 days)
• Nov. 28: Final chance to activate
  • Walker will be at 9 days
  • Williams will be at 8 days
  • Aiyuk will be at 8 days
  • Helm will be at 8 days
  • Jones will be at 5 days
  • Willis will be at 5 days
• Nov. 29: 49ers at Rams

Each player’s exact status is unclear since the league doesn’t release information regarding who tested positive and who’s on the list because of close exposure to someone who tested positive.

But any player who tested positive must be asymptomatic and test negative for five straight days to return. Armstead and Kinlaw were on the list for nine days, while Williams and Aiyuk will both be at the eight-day mark Saturday — the last chance for the 49ers to activate players from the list.

“I think Trent has a chance just because they haven’t told me 100 percent no,” Shanahan said Friday. “But that’s the only one I can say that I was told had a chance. … But it’s not much of a chance.”

That means Aiyuk will likely be unavailable, while Williams may have to pass virus tests on Saturday and Sunday morning to play. If Williams can’t play, the 49ers would start Justin Skule at left tackle. He filled in for former 49ers left tackle Joe Staley in a Week 5 road win against the Rams last season.

The 49ers signed veteran receiver Jordan Matthews, who was with the team in 2019, to the practice squad on Friday. They waived rookie receiver Chris Finke to make room. Matthews can theoretically be flexed to the active roster for Sunday’s game if Aiyuk isn’t available.

Meanwhile, the Rams only have three players on their injury report. Linebacker Terrell Lewis (knee) is doubtful, while center Brian Allen (knee) and tight end Tyler Higbee (elbow) are questionable.

2. Sherman’s potential return means that the 49ers might start a pair of former Pro Bowlers at the two cornerback positions. Jason Verrett will likely slide over to the boundary side of the field while Sherman will reassume the field corner spot he last played in Week 1.

The duo has seen simultaneous action only once, for an ill-fated four-play stretch against Pittsburgh in 2019 during which Verrett was clearly not yet healthy. Verrett did not enter the lineup until Week 3 this season, after Sherman had gone on injured reserve.

“If Sherm’s back there and back to himself fully a 100 percent, we’ll get him out there fully,” Shanahan said. “I’m glad we got him in a week before the break we had here, just so we could get him acclimated a little bit.”

Cornerback Emmanuel Moseley, who’s started when healthy this season, gives the 49ers peace of mind in case Sherman isn’t immediately at full speed when he returns to game action. Coverage depth is paramount behind a weakened pass rush, especially since the Rams have three strong outside receiving presences in Cooper Kupp, Robert Woods and Josh Reynolds.

Verrett picked off a key pass in the end zone during the first meeting, while Sherman has some history with Rams quarterback Jared Goff. Back when he was with the Seahawks in 2016, Sherman crossed the field to crush a scrambling Goff near the pylon.

3. Since Kupp also works out of the slot, 49ers nickelback Jamar Taylor will again have a key role. Kupp managed just two catches for 7 yards while working against Taylor last month at Levi’s.

Taylor’s success filling in at nickelback for Williams this season might be part of a looming offseason puzzle for the 49ers. Several frontline defensive backs — Sherman, Verrett, Williams and strong safety Jaquiski Tartt — are set to become free agents, and the 49ers won’t have enough salary-cap space to retain everyone.

That leaves several possible permutations on the table. Taylor would presumably be a more cost-effective option at nickel than Williams. On the outside, the 49ers might be intent on retaining at least one decorated veteran, Sherman or Verrett, to help develop potential draft picks and other youngsters.

Would Sherman ever consider moving to safety? In an interview before the Super Bowl earlier this year, Sherman said that’d be a possibility late in his career, and the 49ers’ defensive scheme — which has evolved from its pure Cover-3 roots in terms of increased safety interchangeability — might be more amenable to such a move now.

That said, the 32-year-old Sherman has continued to play at a high level at corner when healthy, even earning second-team All-Pro honors last season. The effectiveness of his return in 2020 might determine his trajectory.

When asked if Sherman could make a switch from corner to safety, like former 49ers DB Merton Hanks — a cornerback at Iowa — did upon entering the league three decades ago, Shanahan ruled nothing out.

“Sherman doesn’t have as long of a neck as Merton, but he’s got more hair that could help him with the hitting, I guess,” Shanahan said with a smile. “Sherm, whatever challenge he wants, I wouldn’t put anything past him.”

4. Consider the season’s final six games an open audition for two spots along the 49ers’ interior offensive line.

With Weston Richburg and Ben Garland both still out, Daniel Brunskill has slid over to center. Compton and McKivitz have split time filling the resulting vacancy at right guard, with mixed results. A missed block from McKivitz detonated the 49ers’ key fourth-and-short attempt in their most recent loss at New Orleans.

But on the whole, Shanahan said he’s seen progress from McKivitz, who now will be thrown into the fire full-time with Compton out. The looming matchup with Rams All-Pro defensive tackle Aaron Donald is daunting, but the 49ers are viewing this an opportunity: Good development from McKivitz might allow the team to fill a hole on the interior in cost-efficient fashion next season.

And if Brunskill continues playing well at center, he might fall into the same category.

“(McKivitz) and Compton have both been given an opportunity,” Shanahan said. “Then moving Brunskill to center, he’s been given an opportunity to show us where he can help at other positions, too.

“I was impressed with Compton and McKivitz coming in on early notice versus Green Bay and rotating and playing pretty good. I thought both of them took a step forward in the right direction versus New Orleans. So, we’ll see how this year keeps going with both of them.”

Brunskill made his first career start at right guard against the Rams in Week 16 of last season and struggled against Donald. In Week 6 this season, after Shanahan made those run-centric adjustments that minimized standard pass protection, Brunskill got the best of Donald.

The Rams will likely move their star pass rusher across the formation, especially if the 49ers’ offensive line looks like this:

• LT Skule
• LG Laken Tomlinson
• C Brunskill
• RG McKivitz
• RT Mike McGlinchey

When Skule manned left tackle in Los Angeles last season, the Rams moved Donald to defensive end and he logged a sack on the game’s first possession.

5. But ultimately, matchups against the Rams serve as litmus tests of interior offensive line play. The 49ers have struggled against every one of the players on the list below over the past calendar year, even though they succeeded against Donald in Week 6.

Donald is no longer on the record-breaking pace for sacks he was on before the first meeting with the 49ers. But he still has nine sacks in 10 games, which ranks third in the NFL — and first among defensive tackles. Atlanta’s Grady Jarrett, despite posting a higher pass-rush win rate, has only three sacks.

6. McVay was the tight ends coach back when he worked under Shanahan, then the offensive coordinator in Washington. In 2013, Washington drafted Reed at the position. McVay coached Reed during that rookie season before rising to offensive coordinator in 2014 following Shanahan’s departure. Reed developed into one of the league’s best tight ends in McVay’s offense over the next three seasons.

If Reed plays on Sunday (he’s currently questionable with an illness), he’ll be the 49ers’ featured tight end since Kittle is unavailable. That hasn’t stopped McVay from considering the matchup problems the 49ers would pose if Kittle and Reed do get to play alongside each other later this season or in 2021.

“It’s really a headache,” McVay said. “Jordan is one of the best separators that I’ve ever been around, has a natural feel to work edges. He’s got great hand-eye. When he’s been out there, he’s looked like the guy that I’ve always known.

“And we all know what a complete player Kittle is. Those two players together, especially in Kyle’s system where he’s able to do such a great job of moving guys around and getting matchups and isolations that he wants, that is not a fun thing for a division opponent.”

7. The 49ers have scrounged efficiency out of a beleaguered defense more effectively than they did in 2019. Perhaps this was best on display two weeks ago in New Orleans, when the 49ers defense led the charge a year after surrendering 46 points in the Superdome.

And this time, of course, the 49ers held relatively firm without Sherman and prodigious edge rusher Nick Bosa. That’s partially because defensive coordinator Robert Saleh streamlined his approach.

“There’s got to be a simplicity within checks so those guys can just line up and go play,” he said earlier this week. “And we had more of an emphasis this year on, ‘Hey, we’re just going to line up. We’re not going to chase (Taysom Hill) all over the field. We’re just going to line up, play football, keep our eyes on the quarterback and play good, sound, fundamental football, get our feet in the ground and let’s just go execute.'”

Those basics were also on display in the 49ers’ first game against the Rams, during which Saleh’s defense couldn’t muster an overpowering pass rush but still managed to put a lid on McVay’s attack. Goff finished just 19-of-38 for 198 yards.

8. Against the Saints, the 49ers changed the pecking order at strong safety. Tarvarius Moore played all 59 defensive snaps at that position alongside free safety Jimmie Ward, while Marcell Harris — the team’s previous top backup to Tartt — saw 30 snaps in a dime back role.

“We wanted to get more speed on the football field, plain and simple,” Saleh said. “Tarvarius runs a 4.3. Marcell Harris is incredibly fast and he plays extremely fast inside the box. And then obviously, Jimmie is so versatile, frees up Jimmie to do a little bit more than just stay in the middle of the field.

“Also with Tartt being out and moving Marcell to play more of that dime look, he’s still a safety, it’s just a complement to allow Jimmie some freedom to go play more, to do more and unlock some of the talents that he has. And then at the same time, being able to utilize some of the strength that T-Moore has.”

9.The Rams faced the easier portion of their schedule early in the season, and their offense has taken some lumps against tougher competition ever since. But their defense has excelled regardless of opponent, and that’s put the Rams into the NFL’s top statistical tier along with the Chiefs and Steelers:

People questioned the Rams' balance before the 49ers first played them, citing a weak schedule, but LA has remained in the top tier through tougher games — mainly thanks to an excellent defense: pic.twitter.com/DTI2lnVhfj

— David Lombardi (@LombardiHimself) November 27, 2020

In short, the Rams’ profile remains strikingly similar to that of the 2019 49ers.

The Rams have allowed a league-low 5.1 net yards per pass attempt, a testament to cohesion between the Donald-led pass rush and excellent coverage anchored around roving cornerback Jalen Ramsey. But the Rams do have a relative weakness that the 49ers have already exploited once: They rank No. 12 in run defense DVOA.

The ground attack will again be key for the 49ers, who’ll try to play this game on their terms with Mullens under center.

10.The 49ers seem excited to just play following an unusual bye week littered with players on the COVID-19/reserve list, Zoom meetings and no in-person work.

“It’s a little unusual,” Shanahan said. “We’re all meeting on Zoom calls and stuff, which has been fun. We all get on there and mess with each other for about 10 minutes, almost, before we start a meeting.

“So, you can tell guys miss hanging out with each other and stuff. Once we got out to the field for walk-through (on Tuesday), guys were eager to get out there, but we have had a week off. Everyone’s got some cobwebs from that, coaches included. When you’re not together and talking ball and doing it each day, you need some time to get it back.”

That’s what this week has been about. The 49ers hoped that extra rest would finally give them a chance to heal, and now they hope they’re fresh and refocused enough to overcome persistent shortages and make noise over the season’s final six-game stretch.

Predictions

Rams 33, 49ers 24

What to watch for: In the 49ers’ star-crossed 2020 season, even the bye weekend brought bad news — two more players went on the COVID-19/reserve list. The 49ers will get some needed reinforcements against the Rams, but other key players will miss the game because they’re on the COVID-19 list or were on it until late in the week, the second time this season the roster has been impacted by the virus. Sunday’s contest shouldn’t be quite the spanking the 49ers received from the Packers this month. Still, it’s hard to see an undermanned squad topping perhaps the most complete team in the division.

— Matt Barrows

Rams 24, 49ers 23

What to watch for: The 49ers will be fresh(er), but they’ll still be significantly short-handed. The Rams will be tired, but a formidable defense has the edge against a backup quarterback in any situation. The 49ers will scratch and claw to keep this close, but Garoppolo and Kittle are their two highest-paid players for a reason: They’re important. Those two provided the difference against the Rams in Week 6 with a quick-strike touchdown against the blitz, and they won’t be around to do the same this time.

— David Lombardi

Rams 30, 49ers 20

What to watch for: This is very similar to the way I felt about the Raiders going for an unexpected sweep of the Chiefs last week. Maybe there’s some key matchup advantage for the less-talented team, but it’s just hard to see that manifesting in a sweep. The 49ers won the last game with a lot of tricky short passing at or behind the line of scrimmage and with the Rams offense getting a little sputtery. Maybe the 49ers will give the Rams another scare, but I just can’t see this all happening twice in a row.

— Tim Kawakami

Rams 28, 49ers 24

What to watch for: After three straight losses to the 49ers, it’s hard to imagine the Rams not bringing their “A” game. But the 49ers have lost three straight, are coming off a bye, are getting some key players back and, for some reason, the Rams always look like food to them. Which wins out? In the end it comes down to Mullens handling the weight of producing a big game against a more talented and motivated team with a defense led by Donald. That’s just not a safe bet.

— Marcus Thompson II

Rams 28, 49ers 19

What to watch for: The 49ers’ luxurious rest and the Rams’ short week make for a tempting upset pick. Our David Lombardi earlier this week cited a study about how teams coming off a bye have won 53 percent of their games over the past four seasons compared to 47 percent for teams coming off a Monday night game. But the biggest number for me? The Rams’ No. 1 overall defense. That’s too big a hurdle to overcome for a 49ers offense struggling for continuity.

— Dan Brown

49ers 24, Rams 23

What to watch for: There’s a decent chance I’ll end up being the lone dissenter here, and if so, that would make a lot of sense. The Rams are a better team on paper, the 49ers are still dealing with injuries and COVID-19, and it’s tough to sweep a team in your division. But the 49ers have a few things going for them: they should get at least a couple of key players back for this game, they’re coming off of a much-needed bye, and the Rams played a tough game on the East Coast on Monday night. If the 49ers fall to 4-7, they can probably pack it in. Are they ready to accept that this is a lost season yet? I’m not so sure.

— Steve Berman

(File photo from Oct. 18: Thearon W. Henderson / Getty Images)